Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts

Monday, October 6, 2008

In God We Trust

In the sermon at church yesterday, our children's minister made the connection between the "fear" everyone is feeling during the current economic crisis (yes, Governor Palin, I was listening) and our collective inability to trust in the Lord completely.

"No one can serve two masters; for either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be devoted to one and despise the other. You cannot serve God and wealth. For this reason I say to you, do not be worried about your life, as to what you will eat or what you will drink; nor for your body, as to what you will put on. Is not life more than food, and the body more than clothing? Look at the birds of the air, that they do not sow, nor reap nor gather into barns, and yet your heavenly Father feeds them. Are you not worth much more than they?" (Matthew 6:24-26)

He went on to comment on how "In God We Trust" on our currency is more than just outdated lip service to our nation's motto (I'm paraphrasing but you get the point). It's a constant reminder that we need to put our faith in the Lord and, as a result, we'll be less anxious. In other words, no matter what happens, God's got our back.

"So do not worry about tomorrow; for tomorrow will care for itself."

This sermon came right on the heels -- pun intended -- of a week-long search for the perfect dress and shoes for my girlfriend Kim's wedding! Never mind the wallet when you can wear Calvin Klein's finest six-inch heels this side of the Bowery. (Note: These looked ridiculous so I put them on for a joke. Joke was on me; they're cute as can be. I'm just not sure I can walk.)



Never to be worn again unless the economy takes me to flophouse ruin? Then I'll be adequately prepared for the oldest profession in the world. Well, at least my feet will be . . .

Friday, June 6, 2008

Legal Tender

We’re in the basement, learning to print
All of it’s hot
$10–20–30 million, ready to be spent
We’re stackin’ them against the wall those gangster presidents
------------------------------

I posed a scenario, similar to the following, to my economist brother last fall.

What if, instead of spending millions of dollars on an ill-fated fast ferry to Toronto, Rochester did the following?

Hire 50 sharp, young thought-leaders/entrepreneurs and guarantee them a $90K annual salary for two years to move to Rochester. To gain entre to our glorious city, each is required to write a compelling business plan. For the next two years, each individual is given the resources to execute the idea including a $100K additional investment annually to start their business (i.e., while fully employed).

There would be say $500K in annual operating funds set aside for the building lease, maintenance, overhead, equipment, etc. And shared resources will be allocated (copiers, entrepreneur in residence).

Successful plans may be eligible for incremental investment (e.g., on average, an additional $2M in funding for the top 10% of the plans assuming they met pre-established metrics); others can attempt to limp along on their own, if they so desire, or pack it in (their choice).

Overall, $30M would be spent over two-plus years to gain what, if anything, in return? I wonder how many long-term successful businesses would be started.

My brother’s response: bad investment. In short (whereas his answer was actually long, detailed and well articulated), free markets (e.g., venture capitalists) tend to make much better decisions from determining what to fund to overall fiscal management and cutting funds as soon as necessary on under-performing ventures.

And now, hot off the presses, is a May 2008 working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research that backs up his claim: “The results indicate that enterprises financed by government-sponsored venture capitalists under-perform on a variety of criteria, including value-creation, as measured by the likelihood and size of IPOs and M&As, and innovation, as measured by patents.”

So where is the long-term hope for our fair city when our young talent is reportedly fleeing the area? Does it lie in what I term the “giant magnet effect” (i.e., where a great number of us, for whatever reason, come back years later)?

The problem as I see it with the magnet model is that, upon return, many of us are labeled “overqualified” and we trade in a high salary for a presumably better way of life or we leave again. For a city that boasts a talented workforce yet simultaneously decries the loss of talent, it’s a catch-22. Do you want the talent to stay in the area or don’t you?

For my uber-talented designer friend Todd who came back to Rochester after 25+ years in NYC and subsequently had to move to Dodge (seriously!) for a great job at Land’s End because he was “too talented for Rochester,” my sincere apologies on behalf of our entire city.

I don’t ever want to hear that phrase again. I would rather do everything in my power possible to change that commonly uttered phrase to “not talented enough for Rochester.”

But how?

Monday, March 10, 2008

U.S. Economy Could Fall Casualty to Wars

That's today's headline on CNN.com. The article goes on to say that:
  • In 2008, its sixth year, the war will cost approximately $12 billion a month, triple the "burn" rate of its earliest years
  • By 2017, it is projected to cost the U.S. budget between $1.7 trillion and $2.7 trillion
  • Interest on money borrowed to pay those costs could alone add $816 billion to that bottom line
  • These numbers don't include the war's cost to the rest of the world
  • Estimating all economic and social costs might push the U.S. war bill up toward $5 trillion by 2017
  • These calculations are conservative and don't encompass many "hidden" items in the U.S. budget
And so on . . .

Check my math because I'm not great at these things but, assuming out of the 300M people in the U.S. that 80% are footing the bill for this through their taxes (i.e., 240M), does that mean that each person is spending roughly $50/month today (or $600/year) and that figure will rise to over $11K annually per capita in a decade (in today's dollars)? Please point out my error and tell me that I'm wrong.

Is this a good reason to strive to earn more so that the hit to my wallet doesn't seem that gigantic or a stronger incentive to earn significantly less (i.e., live off the government and lower my taxes) so that I don't have to personally fund this colossal nightmare?

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Ho Hos Are Society's Best Friend!

Finally some good news!

According to a study reported in today's Chicago Tribune, it costs the government more to care for healthy people who live years longer. The long-term cost to care for smokers is $326K, obese people is $371K, and thin/healthy people is $417K.

It goes on to say that the study did not take into account other potential costs of obesity and smoking, such as lost economic productivity or social costs, blah blah blah . . .

No analysis paralysis here: I know exactly what I need to play my part in reducing the burden to society. Just when I was inching back toward 115 lbs., I get the green light to course correct.

Slim-Fast be gone! Hello Sweet Potato Hoe Cakes.